Lip Reading, 3D Desktops, And NUI: Microsoft Plans To Reinvent User Interaction

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kinect_out

Deep in the skunk works of its Research and Labs divisions, secreted around the Seattle area, Microsoft is working on totally reinventing the way people interact with their computers. Very little is out in the open or in more than a prototype form, but the work is unquestionably being done.

Last week it transpired that Microsoft is working on building Kinect into the bezels of laptops, and after that, presumably, tablets and eventually mobile phones. But it’s not just about building out the install base for Dance Central 3. It’s enabling the next generation of awareness in our electronics. The iPhone ushered in an era where our devices know when we touch them. Microsoft is working on the next one, in which our devices will simply know us.

How do you, as a person, experience the world around you? You mostly see and hear, and to a lesser extent you touch, taste, smell. Our devices, however, are largely restricted to an extremely limited sense of touch. Why shouldn’t they be more like us?

There’s a good reason, actually: computers don’t need to be like people because computers aren’t people. For years this has held true: the computer’s primary purpose for decades was to sit still and perform calculations humans couldn’t do. Interaction with a computer was strictly input, output. You didn’t interact so much as instruct, and wait for the result.

But mobile phones and touchscreens and laptops began changing the idea of a computer into something more personal, more interactive, more two-way. And technology exists to let our devices become more human. Why not let them?

Microsoft wants to. Despite their reputation among tech enthusiasts as a sort of stodgy blue-chip still coasting on the PC explosion of the late 90s and early 2000s, their R&D sections are world-class and put out actually innovative ideas and devices all the time. The trouble, briefly stated, is that implementing these ideas as products that fit into the Microsoft ecosystem isn’t easy, and even if it were, Microsoft has no talent for it.

But this work on “Natural User Interaction,” or NUI, is more promising. People have embraced the idea in gaming: the Wii led the way and the Kinect brought the future into your living room, though the future is a little laggy and the voice controls spotty. People are simply interested in new ways of interacting with their content and devices. For years the promise of a different kind of interaction has been dangling, in the form of sci-fi shows and movies usually, and people have always been intrigued by it.

So people want it — and Microsoft wants to make it — and they have the technology. Purchasing the IP behind the Kinect was an extremely smart move, maybe smarter than they know. What started out as a way to cash in on the market the Wii had created has snowballed into an entirely new form of interacting with computers, and a way for Microsoft to differentiate itself meaningfully for years to come.

It was reported to me that one of the things the new Kinect/depth/IR sensors will do is read lips. At first it sounds silly. Why? Maybe so it can better interpret your words from across the room, or in a loud environment. You won’t have to turn the music down to search and navigate the web on your TV or tablet.

And then it becomes clear that it’s just part of a larger suite of “senses” the device would have. The new devices are to have face recognition and voice recognition, so your password will be you saying your password in your own voice, not someone else, and not a print-out of you. They’ll be able to pick you out of a crowd, say a small party, and will be able to tell when you’re giving it a command — because you make eye contact and move your lips. Again, it sounds perfectly ridiculous until it starts sounding perfectly natural.

Another feature described was a sort of 3D desktop on which you could actually grab files and place them here and there. This has been tried before, of course, and Windows 8 is looking decided two-dimensional, so it’s probably more of a research project than anything. But it’s still interesting. Think of the basic gestures you might be able to make. One was described as pulling out a drawer. In the surprisingly resilient desktop metaphor of files and folders, what could be more natural? Or perhaps raising your hand palm up to show the task bar or dock? Trace your finger in a counter-clockwise circle to undo, clockwise to redo?

User experience reflects both the needs of the user and the capabilities of the device. For a few years now we’ve been satisfied with running our fingers along a slab of glass, producing an electrical signal interpreted as a point or blob — mainly because capacitive screens got good and cheap, and nobody wants to plug a mouse into their phone. But there are many other ways of interacting with our new mobile objects and information. Soon the glass touchscreen will seem as quaint as the command-line interface.

And yet, some are no doubt thinking, we still have some command-line interfaces in use. Sure. And mice and keyboards are still better for productivity, and a pen and paper is better for sketching out ideas, and headphones are better for listening to music in public. There are countless use cases and potential applications of technology, but it’s good to recognize when one should give way or simply isn’t applicable.

Microsoft is working hard at this, and you’d better believe that Apple is too, though they aren’t nearly as open about their research. And for once, they seem to actually be missing a piece of the technology pie: Microsoft has a head start on them in the world of NUI, having purchased and developed depth and personal sensors for at least two years now. Apple can always throw money at the problem, but it’s pretty clear that Microsoft has perceived this rare advantage and will be using it as a wedge wherever possible.

This shouldn’t be taken as an indication that Windows 8 is going to be anything other than advertised, but I think it will be a test bed for some major changes coming down the line. Microsoft wants to change the way people interact with computers because it sees, hopefully not too late, that the old way, the PC way, treating a computer like a box that computes things, is on its way out in a hurry. So if computers are going to be a part of the real world, they need to be able to live in that world. Eyes, ears, and who knows what else. It’s only creepy until you can’t live without it.

[images: Matthew Fisher/Stanford, Wolfgang Herfuntner]



February 7th 2012 microsoft

AOL to Make Inventory Available on Yahoo’s Right Media Exchange

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AOL,Yahoo and Microsoft recently became ad sales partners, with Yahoo electing to stick with its own ad exchange while Microsoft decided to work with AppNexus. AOL was the one partner that had yet to pick an exchange partner in the alliance.

As it turns out, perhaps surprisingly AOL has chosen to throw its lot in with Yahoo's, not Microsoft's exchange platform. The company has decided to make its non-reserved display inventory available on Yahoo’s Right Media Exchange (RMX). AOL took a seat on the exchange in December, said Brian Silver, Yahoo’s vp of ad platforms for the Americas.

The addition of AOL “helps to dispel some of the myths [around RMX such as the perception that] Right Media is so aligned with Yahoo that there’s this unfairness sort of occurring, and that’s not true,” Silver said.

Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft said in November that the three companies would share their nonreserved inventory via RMX and the Microsoft Advertising Exchange — which is powered by AppNexus. Silver denied any impact from today's announcement on Microsoft.

The Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft partnership has been widely perceived as an effort to counter Google’s advertising exchange, but many expected that Microsoft’s exchange would emerge as the partnership’s primary platform with the possibility that Yahoo would sell or shut down RMX. Insiders in the ad tech world often heap praise on AppNexus' technology, while often criticizing RMX.

It is uncertain how today’s announcement may impact AOL’s Advertising.com, although the ad network holds its own seat on RMX. David Jacobs, svp of Advertising.com, said in a statement that the announcement "provides for Advertising.com to continue to access AOL inventory for our existing advertisers while providing increased competition through additional demand sources."

AOL chairman and CEO Tim Armstrong said, during a conference call with reporters following the company’s fourth quarter earnings release on Wednesday, that AOL’s advantage in the network and exchange space resides with “the machine-learning we do and have done with Advertising.com.”

“You can think of us probably as more of a Goldman Sachs-type player on top of the exchanges,” Armstrong added, “where we spend a lot of time, energy and technology trying to figure out the value of individual things being traded and we have a proprietary set of technologies around that.” However, it's certainly easy to see some buyers eschewing Advertising.com for Right Media's exchange, assuming the same ad inventory is available through both channels.

Armstrong also said during the conference call that AOL is beta testing an ad product with a partner that will “basically both help the ad exchanges as well as offer another version of non-reserved inventory for them, and we’ll go into more detail over that in this quarter.”



February 3rd 2012 microsoft, Technology, yahoo

Microsoft Enables Online Voting For Overseas Citizens

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It was only a matter of time, but citizens in some states are getting the chance to vote via the Internet. LiveBallot, based on Microsoft’s Windows Azure cloud computing system and developed by Democracy Live, allows voters who are overseas …

January 26th 2012 microsoft, Technology

Xbox 720 To Feature Anti-Used Game System

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Rumors can be strange and wonderful things, but rarely ever both. The new Xbox 720 rumors fall under both categories. Kotaku is reporting that their sources have told them that the next Xbox, dubbed the 720 for obvious reasons, is …

January 26th 2012 microsoft

Microsoft Releases Earnings For FY12 Q2

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Were you anxiously waiting for Microsoft to announce their earnings for the second quarter of 2012? Today’s your day, then. From the press release: Microsoft Corp. today announced quarterly revenue of $20.89 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2011, …

January 20th 2012 microsoft

First Mover: Brian Skahan

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Given the changes in consumer technology, is CES still a must-attend event? Microsoft says this year is its last for exhibiting; Apple has never participated.
The important part of it is, you can very quickly identify next year’s big trend. Last year, within an hour of being there, you knew everyone would be pushing 3-D TV heavily. This year, I think the clear one is going to be ultrabooks.

What’s the emerging consumer technology at CES you’re most interested in this year?
The stuff I’m usually interested in is under the radar. The two things are the ultra-definition televisions and the next version of Google TV, which hasn’t been a success in the past. But we’re at a point now that’s comparable to right before the iPhone came out: Everyone knew mobile was about to take off, but it just needed one thing to succeed for smartphones to really blow up. That’s where we are with the connected living room.

Aside from an iPad or smartphone, what are the digital devices you can’t live without?
I couldn’t be without my laptop because it does everything I need. I have Skype on there, I can make voice calls. If I want to write code, I can write code. If I want to do Photoshop, I can do Photoshop. As much as I love using a tablet, the most complicated thing you make on a tablet is an email.

How is morale at Publicis Modem N.Y.? This is an agency that has gone through a lot of recent management and staff changes.
Morale is a huge priority. The best work comes from a happy group of people who are excited about what they’re working on. We went through a period where we were asking, “What do we want Modem to be three years down the road?” That led to a lot of change. Some people were happy about that change; some were unhappy about it. We’re starting to get to the point where the staff understands the vision of where we’re going and they’re getting excited about it.

You came to Publicis Modem from Crispin Porter + Bogusky, which was your first advertising job after working in technology. What was the transition like?
After I got to Crispin, I realized I had worked in advertising for years. Where I worked previously, Digital Pulp, is an interactive agency. We thought of ourselves as a technology shop because we focused more on technology than on communications, but we were building branded interfaces for companies, and that’s a huge part of what advertising is now.

At college you studied political science, economics and computer science. Were you ever interested in advertising?
After attending college, I spent time running my own data analysis business, working with political campaigns and nonprofit organizations—basically branding those candidates and groups. That experience helped me have a different perspective on what advertising should be because I come at it from a consumer perspective. That is really valuable as we go from a brand-centric view of advertising to one more driven by consumers.

What was it like to leave Boulder, Colo., where Crispin is, for New York?
I miss the weather, but we love New York. My favorite part of being here is walking to work in the morning. In other places, you see people walking, but it’s more like strolling. In New York, walking is a means to an end and it creates a certain energy when everyone is focused on a goal.



January 16th 2012 apple, ipad, microsoft, Technology

Extremely Loud and Incredibly So-So

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It is well established that the annual International Consumer Electronics Show is among the biggest, busiest, noisiest of industry meet-ups, last week drawing some 140,000 attendees plus 3,100 exhibitors—the most ever—to that otherwise sleepy little desert town of Las Vegas. Perhaps the only thing about this year’s CES that wasn’t big, in fact, was the news

Gadget makers mostly trucked out devices—some 20,000 of them—that were simply updated versions of existing products, and no major new technology was unveiled. The disappointing dearth of actual innovation at this year’s CES was hinted at during a panel discussion dubbed “Argue the Future,” in which Josh Topolsky, editor of Vox Media’s tech site The Verge, interviewed reps from Microsoft, HTC and Samsung. Speaking of the smartphone industry, where too often manufacturers flood the market with models that offer mere tweaks rather than real advancement, Topolsky asked: “Are we trying to create demand where there isn’t any?”

Yet, there was some genuine excitement last week. Attendees buzzed about a new lineup of television sets featuring OLED and 4K technology (see sidebar). On the media front, the flailing social network Myspace, which Specific Media last year bought from News Corp., announced (with the aid of investor Justin Timberlake) that it’s getting into the TV business with Myspace TV. Yahoo hawked an animated Web series, Electric City, co-produced by Tom Hanks.

Celebrities have become as much a story at CES as any technology unveiled there. Justin Bieber made an appearance, as did Will.i.am. LL Cool J was on hand to promote his music-centric social network, while 50 Cent showed off his brand new line of headphones.
The show has also famously become a hot ticket for media and marketing types. Even the topic of one of the keynotes was the growing presence of ranking marketing execs. In that speech,
MediaLink CEO Michael Kassan noted that companies no longer send “low-level corporate scouts” to report back to their bosses. “These are the bosses,” he said—specifically, the CMOs of many large brands. It would stand to reason, seeing that CES is not just about gadgets, he added, but about “how people buy a car, read a book, get a date, get a job.”

To drive home the point, Kassan brought CMOs and marketing veeps from Walmart, Unilever, AT&T, General Electric and Hyundai Motor America on stage, as well as Facebook vp of global marketing solutions Carolyn Everson, who said if there were one overarching theme of this year’s CES, it was connection, “whether it’s to human beings or devices.” As that trend continues, Everson said, we’re going to see fewer manufacturers who think only about “their own closed ecosystem,” adding, “I think we’re going to see the need for much more collaboration across manufacturers with marketers than ever before.”

Despite the absence of major launches, this year still represented a significant step forward for the event, said BBDO Worldwide CEO Andrew Robertson, attending his first CES. “The big shift between what one might have seen here three years ago and what you see today is that three years ago it was all about the promise of connectivity,” Robertson told Adweek. “Today, it’s there” (see sidebar).

To be sure, CES regulars going into this year’s show had already heard all about Internet-connected TVs, cars and refrigerators. But now those innovations are becoming more of a reality for consumers.
One panel discussion had the likes of HBO technology chief Robert Zitter and ESPN vp of strategic planning and development Bryan Burns musing about whether, after all the hype, 3-D TV was finally about to break through. As Burns pointed out, it also took a while for consumers to fully embrace HDTV.

Microsoft and Nokia, which have been talking about their partnership for nearly a year, are finally bringing Nokia devices with the Windows Phone operating system to the U.S. market, unveiling one model, the Lumia 900, in Vegas and wowing tech journalists.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s keynote last Monday (apparently his last, with the company bowing out of CES after 15 years) perfectly captured the contradictions of the expo. The room filled up long before the speech started, leading guards to block escalators and angry attendees to crowd around them, all furiously waving their badges. Still, after all the fuss, the presentation turned out to be noteworthy for the appearance of yet another boldface name (American Idol’s Ryan Seacrest, who interviewed Ballmer) and its ill-conceived idea of entertainment (a choir belted out Microsoft-related comments posted on Twitter) rather than for any news, as Ballmer, with his usual buoyance, simply pitched a long list of existing Microsoft products. Even the Lumia 900 was announced at an earlier event staged by Nokia.

It’s one thing to traverse the behemoth Las Vegas Convention Center in search of some hot new thing. It’s quite another for the tech journalist whose job is to make sense of the abundance of A-listers and shiny toys.

Capturing the amped-up, often mind-numbing nature of the big show was Gawker’s gadget blog Gizmodo. In his piece, reporter Mat Honan described his growing fatigue after sitting through demo after demo, “ennui upon ennui upon ennui set in this amazing temple of technology.”

The overwhelmed, the exhausted and the jaded notwithstanding, many attendees remain bullish on CES.
Even with all the tech events out there, Dae Mellencamp, CEO of video service Vimeo, said CES is the only trade show she makes a point of attending regularly.

“I always take something back from this one,” she said.



January 16th 2012 microsoft, Technology

Microsoft Offers Big Vision, Little News

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Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer kicked off this year's International Consumer Electronics Show on Monday night with characteristically high energy but not much in the way of big news.

Ballmer's speech was supposedly Microsoft's final keynote at the event, breaking a 15-year streak. That decision probably made a bigger splash than Ballmer's actual speech. Gary Shapiro, the president and CEO of the Consumer Electronics Association (which organizes CES), addressed some of the speculation in his introduction, claiming that the decision was mutual (rather than a unilateral withdrawal from Microsoft) and saying he would be "shocked" if another Microsoft executive doesn't take the stage at CES in coming years.

As for the keynote itself, Ballmer focused on highlighting products that Microsoft has already announced and demonstrated at other events. However, he and the other company representatives dribbled out a few small pieces of news—the biggest being a time line for the release of the first Windows Phones created in partnership with Nokia. In the United States, the Nokia 710 Lumia will be available on Wednesday, Ballmer said.

Even though Ballmer didn't have much new to share, he still trotted out many of Microsoft's existing products, all united by the company's new "Metro" interface. Metro lays the screen out in tiles that are personalizable and responsive to touchscreens, and Microsoft is using it in Windows Phones, the Xbox and in the upcoming Windows 8 operating system. On phones, Ballmer said Metro provides an alternative to the "sea of apps" approach taken by competitors.

On the Xbox, Metro is coupled with the Kinect interface, which allows users to interact with their game consoles using gestures and voice. Xbox has increasingly become an "entertainment hub for live TV, on demand, social" and more, Ballmer said. On the live TV front, the company announced that Xbox Live customers will be able to sign up for Xfinity cable from Comcast. Microsoft's Greg Davidson also said Xbox is working with "the world's best-known brands, creative artists and production companies" to create interactive TV experiences—for example, Microsoft demonstrated a version of Sesame Street (first unveiled last fall) where viewers can interact with characters from the show.

The biggest surprises on Monday night probably weren't the Microsoft products or announcements, but rather the choice of celebrity host for the event (American Idol's Ryan Seacrest) and the bold (if not particularly well-received) decision to bring a choir onstage to sing out selected comments about the keynote from Twitter.

At the end, Seacrest asked Ballmer to reveal, "What's next?" and the Microsoft CEO fell back on his existing themes: "Metro, metro, metro. And of course, Windows, Windows, Windows."



January 11th 2012 microsoft, Mobile, Technology

Predictions 2012 #7: Shooting From The Hip

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This year I tried something new with my predictions, writing deeper posts on each one. I got to six, but I underestimated how long it would take to write 1,000 or so words for each post. I’m pushing past 10,000 words for the past week, and “predictions season” is pretty much over. I think it’s about time I gave all of us a break, and just got down to some rapid fire predictions. This will be my last predictions post, and most likely the one most likely to bring down my year end grade, because I’m just going to shoot from the hip. It’s something I’ve never really done before, but that’s why I’m doing it. These are notions, hunches, itches I’ve not scratched. But what the heck, this is for the fun of it. To them:

- Google’s Chromebook will triple its marketshare by the end of the year. I can’t figure out what its marketshare is now, but it’s pretty small. Another way of putting this is Chromebook will be a success this year.

- Obama will win the 2012 election, thanks in part to the tech community rallying behind him due to issues like SOPA, visas, and free speech.

- Both Apple and Amazon will make billion-dollar acquisitions. More interestingly, so will Facebook.

- Android will be brought to heel by Google, eliciting both massive complaints and cheers, depending on where you sit.

- Microsoft Windows Phone will become the Bing of mobile (IE, move into double digit market share).

- Microsoft Xbox will integrate meaningfully with the web (Kinect is key), and start to compete in social across the digital spectrum.

- IBM will emerge as a key player in the consumer Internet.

- China will be caught spying on US corporations, especially tech and commodity companies. Somewhat oddly, no one will (seem to) care.

- A heads up display for the web will launch that actually is worth using, but most likely in limited use cases.

That’s about it for now. My next post will summarize all my 2012 predictions, so there’s one neat URL to refer to for future reference. Have a great 2012!

Related:

Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

Predictions 2012: #2 – Twitter As Free Radical, Swiss Bank, Arms Merchant…And Google Five Years Ago

Predictions 2012 #3: The Facebook Ad Network

Predictions 2012 #4: Google’s Challenging Year

Predictions 2012 #5: A Big Year for M&A

Predictions 2012 #6: “The Corporation” Becomes A Central Societal Question Mark

Predictions 2011

2011: How I Did

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

January 10th 2012 apple, Facebook, Google, microsoft

Predictions 2012 #5: A Big Year for M&A

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(image) One of the things that pops out of the “Big Five” chart I just posted, at least if you stare at it a bit, are the places where each company needs to get strong, quickly. Apple is weak in social and one dimensional in ad solutions. Microsoft needs to improve its device products, build out its entertainment distribution muscle, and keep improving search share. Google wants to get better in productivity software, social, and payments. Amazon needs help in devices, social, and OS. Facebook has work to do in many areas, including devices, search, payment, and voice.

When the five largest companies in our space have a lot of needs, they tend to pull out the wallet and go shopping. Sometimes they buy their way into partnerships, but often, they simply buy.

Hence my  fifth prediction for 2012: Expect Internet M&A to heat up, big time. It’s not just going to be the Big Five who drive this trend, it’ll be a whole mess of players looking to consolidate power and press into the double-digit growth market that is the Internet (and by Internet, I also mean mobile and enterprise, of course). Yahoo’s new CEO Scott Thompson knows how to buy companies and has a data focus, for example. That could mean competition to purchase marketing, ad tech, and data companies like Blue Kai, Quantcast, or MarketShare. MediaBank is on a tear and will be on the lookout for similar kinds of companies. IBM has a deep interest in the marketing tech world, expect Big Blue to make some big moves as well. And Twitter will certainly be flexing its muscles, now that it’s bulked up with nearly a billion in fresh capital.

If I had to name a few companies I expect to be in play amongst the Big Five, they would be:

Instagram. This searing hot proof-of-iPhone app is not only a strong social play, it’s a massive image and data goldmine to boot. I could imagine a bidding war for Instagram between Apple (which really needs a social win), Twitter (which could really use a strong photo play), Facebook (which might buy it to keep it out of Apple or Google’s hands), and Google (who would see it as a way to sex up Google+ and Picasa). Of course Yahoo would vie for Instagram as well, but I’m not sure it could win.

Pinterest. It’s social. It’s media. It’s data. Is it a mayfly? Perhaps, but I think it’ll be in play in 2012.

Square. Everyone loves small business, and everyone loves payments. Visa already owns a stake, but that won’t stop Dorsey from landing where he feels the fit is best. That might be Amazon.

Evernote. If any of the Big Five are looking to bolster their productivity suite, Evernote might pique their interest.

These are just off the top of my head, and I’m not a VC (or a daily tech reporter for that matter), so I’ll leave the rest to your imagination. Suffice to say, I predict 2012 is going to be a banner year for tech and Internet M&A. Who do you think will be swept up, and why?

Related:

Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

Predictions 2012: #2 – Twitter As Free Radical, Swiss Bank, Arms Merchant…And Google Five Years Ago

Predictions 2012 #3: The Facebook Ad Network

Predictions 2012 #4: Google’s Challenging Year

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2011: How I Did

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2009 How I Did

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2008 How I Did

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2004 How I Did

January 6th 2012 apple, Facebook, Google, microsoft